Summer lull hits MENA ETFs

   The blistering hot summer season in the Middle East, is normally a sleepy period for the region’s funds industry. The beginning of September offered another reminder that summer is nearly behind us as we are now full steam ahead towards the fall season. Traditionally, summer is a generally weak period for the market; but summer 2011 is an exception. August was without question the most eventful of the summer months, and probably for the year as well. 

   The actual size of the Middle East wealth management market is not very large; however, the opportunity it provides is indeed significant. We are, however, in a period where underlying fundamentals have to contend with overarching market sentiment as the primary drivers of equity performance.

   ETFs are investment funds divided into equal units traded on the exchange during trading time, similar to stocks. ETFs enjoy advantages of both mutual funds and stocks. Like other investment funds ETFs are composed of a basket of assets (listed companies shares), however unlike mutual funds ETFs are traded on the exchange.  ETFs have become increasingly popular in many markets around the world as a convenient way to track index performance. MENA, with UAE and Saudi Arabia in particular, are no exceptions; the development of ETF market in these regions has been phenomenal.

   In the United Arab Emirates, National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC started the Gulf’s first ETF in March 2010, and the first to be launched on any GCC exchange. UAE’s first ETF trades on the ADX(Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange)  by the name of “NBAD OneShare Dow Jones UAE 25 ETF”, with a ticker code “1UAE”, as number “1” reflects the first ETF and have exposure to UAE as a whole. 1UAE was domiciled in Ireland under the brand name “OneShare PLC”.

    On another note, on March 2010, Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul has successfully launched their first ETF “Falcom Saudi Equity ETF”, known as Falcom 30, followed by a second ETF that was launched,“Falcom Petrochemical ETF”, on the 8^th of July, 2010.

   Global equity markets went on a wild ride during the month of August, and judging from September’s roaring start, many investors are probably scratching their heads in disbelief. If we examine the ETF universe to determine how it has been impacted during August, we see that Fixed Income shined the most, as it has more ETFs posting positive returns than those with negative.  Next in line to sparkle was Commodities, which can mainly thank precious metals.  Almost 48% of the commodity ETFs are above the water.  On the other side of the coin, we have a fair percentage of ETFs residing in red. There's not a single ETF in the international space posting gains in August. 

   Markets have some of their most violent trading days in recent memory, as the beginning of August brought multiple days with swings higher than 5% in major equities indices. The Gold SPDR (GLD) briefly became the largest ETF in the world during August as gold prices skyrocketed and equity markets were in freefall. But by the time the month drew to a close, GLD was behind S&P 500 (SPY), which was traditionally held the title of “World’s Largest ETF”, by some $20 billion. Generally, ETFs with the highest average volume are used widely as trading vehicles among active traders, and S&P 500 had the highest trading volume among its peers.

   Over the course of August, it has been nothing but volatility in the market. So with September keeping the hits coming, investors are furiously scrambling to their favorite safe havens.

   How did MENA ETFs perform during August, compared to International and Global ETFs, with Ramadan affecting the performance of all Stock exchanges, where the red ink continued to spill all the way through the end of the month? Did they follow the downward trend, same as other funds have performed? Or have they marked a positive trend that would make investors take ETFs more serious, as other tools to rely on when the situation is risky?

   “NBAD OneShare Dow Jones UAE 25 ETF” closed on August the 25^th at AED 4.5361, almost 4.5% decrease since the beginning of August 2011 (NAV= AED 4.75), with AED 17,237,000 Total Assets.

   One of the major events that took place in UAE was the nomination of The National Bank of Abu Dhabi’s NBAD OneShare Dow Jones UAE 25 ETF as Best Investment Product in the prestigious Banker Middle East Products Award 2011 sponsored by Banker Middle East magazine.

   Falcom Saudi Equity ETF (Falcom 30) ended the month with a decrease of almost 1.6 (7.5%) since the beginning of August till the 24th, and closing at SAR 19.7316 (August 24, 2011), with SAR 74,486,713 Total NAV.

   Falcom Petrochemical ETF ended the same day as Falcom 30, with a decrease of almost 3.44 (12.774%) since the beginning of August till it’s end, and closing at SAR 23.4952 on August the 24th, with SAR 26,432,122 Total NAV. 

   The weak performances of these funds are a couple of flecked starts in the traditionally slow summer, and while they are not an indicator of how future trends will be, investors may look forward to a continuation of robust results after Ramadan.

   Since the beginning of the Arab Spring, we saw a drop in prices up to around the end of April. Then came a bounce, but the markets drifted lower into August. Nonetheless, the slow summer has not stopped some Mena-focused funds from posting excellent positive results.